Sometimes it’s easy to forget why those of us that actually care about the Oscars actually, you know, care about the Oscars.

A lot of our friends think we’re either weird or star-crazed or simply misguided sports fans looking for a competitive fix until March Madness starts.

And we’ll spend weeks – months sometimes – debating, discussing, and dissecting an award show that was decided by people who probably took less than five minutes to cast their votes.

Why, then, do we watch, argue, and, again, care so much?

For me it’s because the Academy Awards are, at their best, curators and proponents of daring, original and powerful movies that deserve to get as much attention as possible.

And while the Oscars usually fall far short of that ideal, they still give us cinephiles a spark for the conversation of “What deserves to be honored?” And that conversation – which is much more vital than “What will be honored?” – is enough to keep me interested every year.

When doing Oscar picks, I’m zealously pragmatic. While my favorite movie from the past year was “The Tree of Life,” I’m definitely not expecting a Best Picture win for it. Or “Hugo,” my second choice for 2012. I predict what I think will actually win, and I’m just happy when a movie I believe deserves an Oscar actually receives one.

Here goes nothing:

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
A Morning Stroll

Prediction
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
It had significantly more flying books than the competition.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Prediction
Saving Face

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
Because even Billy Crystal hasn’t seen these, so why not?

BEST LIVE ACTON SHORT
Nominees
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Which Ones I’ve Seen
Raju

Prediction
Raju

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I met the director, and he smelled like gold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I’m basing this on “buzz” more than any personal insight.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
War Horse

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
It’s an audio masterpiece, even if the movie stinks.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
War Horse

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
You can hear every minute detail in the battle scenes.

BEST SONG
Nominees
“Man or Muppet,” The Muppets
“Real in Rio,” Rio

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
“Man or Muppet,” The Muppets

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
The Muppets + Flight of the Conchords’ Bret McKenzie = Oscar.

BEST SCORE
Nominees
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse

Prediction
The Artist

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
The Artist is a silent movie. It’s not rocket science.

BEST MAKEUP
Nominees
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Which Ones I’ve Seen
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Prediction
The Iron Lady

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I haven’t seen a single movie critic pick anything else.

BEST EDITING
Nominees
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
The Artist

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
A couple brilliant scenes may give an edge over Hugo.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre

Prediction
Hugo

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
Flawless, unique costumes that aided the visuals and the actors.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
The Tree of Life

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
Dinosaurs aside, it’s one stunning shot after another.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Nominees
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
Hugo

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I believed that train station was real and surreal simultaneously.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

Which Ones I’ve Seen
N/A, pathetically. I’ll do better in 2012, I promise.

Prediction
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
It’s between that and Undefeated, from what I’ve read.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Nominees
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)

Which Ones I’ve Seen
N/A, which is appalling. I need to expand my horizons.

Prediction
A Separation (Iran)

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I’ll go with the movie nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Which Ones I’ve Seen
Rango

Prediction
Rango

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
One of the more original movies I saw last year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball

Prediction
The Descendants

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
I doubt Sorkin will win two years in a row.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris

Prediction
Midnight in Paris

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
It’s a clever concept from a writer Academy members love.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Artist
The Help
Bridesmaids

Prediction
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
Did you hear what she put in that pie?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Which Ones I’ve Seen
My Week With Marilyn
Moneyball
Beginners
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Prediction
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
He adorably greets his house in the movie. His house!

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Help
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
My Week With Marilyn

Prediction
Viola Davis

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
Her performance is vulnerable, subtle, and gripping. She earned this.

BEST ACTOR
Nominees
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Which Ones I’ve Seen
The Descendants
The Artist
Moneyball

Prediction
George Clooney, The Descendants

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
This is basically a coin toss between him and Dujardin.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Reason for Prediction in 10 Words or Less
A small but passionate Academy bloc could carry Scorsese here.

BEST PICTURE
Nominees
The Help
The Descendants
The Artist
Moneyball
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Which Ones I’ve Seen
(All of the above)

Prediction
The Artist

Reason for Prediction in 275 Words or Less (It’s the biggest category, I have to rant a bit)
I’ve had a lot of friends tell me The Artist was too “slight” or “minor” to be a Best Picture winner. Many critics seem to agree with them. And while I don’t think this movie works extremely well as a drama, it succeeds amazingly as a comedy, and it’s one of the most charming movies I’ve ever seen. Case in point: I generally can’t stand animals (in movies or in real life), but the dog in The Artist converted me to an avid fan. I’d play fetch with him, I’d gladly dog sit him, and I’d even pay for an autograph from the little guy.

No, The Artist isn’t perfect. Yes, it relies so heavily on nostalgia for its appeal that it becomes grating at times. And, sure, it’s not that capital-S “Serious” type of movie people usually associate with the Academy Awards. But in this year’s Best Picture field, it’s good enough to be in the conversation, and a wave of tap dancing and sugar-coated reminiscing should give it the Best Picture win Sunday night.

I think 2011 had some exciting, original work, but a lot of it wasn’t noticed or nominated by the Academy (including Melancholia, Another Earth, and The Future). Maybe it was easier for Hollywood to look back on its glory years than focus on the present remake-heavy, legislative-lobbying industry it has become.

What we’re left with is a probable Best Picture winner that is set nearly a century ago, shot in black & white, and silent. It’s not perfect, but it’ll do for the Oscars in 2012.

Maybe by next year, Hollywood will have reclaimed its confidence, its color, and its voice.

After the meteoric success of Lungs, the group is back with some new tunes, and the track “Shake It Out” is the song of the day. Enjoy.

One of my favorites is this treat:

This simultaneously functions as my first blog post and my first “Song of the Day” post. That’s efficiency for you.